Scenario · 23 August 1939
No Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact
On 23 August 1939 the Moscow talks collapse and no German–Soviet treaty is signed. Everything else — German mobilisation, the British guarantee to Poland, Soviet distrust of the West — stays as it was.
Assumptions
- Hitler still intends to attack Poland in 1939; the Wehrmacht's timetable is unchanged.
- The USSR stays neutral and does not join the Anglo-French side (the summer talks had already stalled).
- Britain and France honour the guarantee to Poland as they did historically.
Possible consequences (hypothesis)
1939-09Uncertainty: medium
Germany attacks Poland anyway, but without a secret agreement on a partition line.
The decision for war was taken before the pact; the pact removed a risk rather than creating the intention. Historians disagree how far the lack of a pact would have delayed the attack.
1939-10Uncertainty: medium
No Soviet invasion on 17 September; Polish forces retreat towards the 'Romanian bridgehead' and resist longer in the east.
The eastern retreat plan existed; without the Red Army the German advance would still have reached the Bug within weeks, so the extension is counted in weeks, not months.
1940Uncertainty: high
The Baltic states and Finland are not pressed into Soviet 'mutual assistance' pacts in autumn 1939; a Winter War is less likely but not excluded.
The secret protocol gave Moscow a free hand; without it, action against the Baltic states would have risked German reaction.
1940–41Uncertainty: low
German economy loses Soviet grain, oil and manganese deliveries of 1940–41, tightening the effect of the British blockade.
The 1940 and 1941 trade agreements were a direct consequence of the pact; the volumes are documented.
Step-by-step simulation is not available yet. We do not generate results we cannot justify.